Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Previewing the Penguins

Since falling to the Canadiens in an embarassing game 7, GM Ray Shero has been actively reshaping the Penguins. They are still built around their strength down the middle with centers Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal along with goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. But it appears the run and gun style may be falling by the way-side if you break down the pieces added around their talented youth.

Armed with long-term contracts, defensemen Paul Martin, Zybynek Michalek and Brooks Orpik now must be discussed with Crosby, Malkin, Fluery and Staal when discussing the core of this team. These 7 players equal nearly $40 million in cap hits, meaning the Pens only have around 16 million to fill out the rest of their depth chart.

Luckily, Shero hasn't made the blunders his fellow GM's have made with albatross contracts. The biggest hits against the Penguins cap space are their most talented players, so it there isn't any wasted space keeping Pittsburgh from retaining a productive player or blocking a prospect from graduating to the lineup.

In fact, for the Penguins to rebound from their disappointing finish of a season ago, they will need some of the lesser priced young players on their roster to seize the opportunity laid before them. The core will produce. This was evidenced by Malkin's "down" season last year still not preventing Pittsburgh from ranking 5th in the league in goals scored. The success of Pittsburgh's season will come from the renewed commitment of Ray Shero to improve on their league ranking of 20th in goals against.

Forwards:
Who will play with who? Pittsburgh has a ridiculous wealth of centers, to the point where a natural center will most likely play alongside Malkin, Crosby or Staal. Shero has stated that there is a strong possibility that Malkin or Staal could move to a wing position to fortify the top 2 lines. With that in mind, here's a look at the potential line combos for Pittsburgh:

Forwards
Chris Kunitz-Sidney Crosby-Evgeni Malkin
(The time has come to put the golden eggs in one basket. Other than Marian Hossa, Crosby hasn't found a winger who can keep up with his anticipation on the ice. Why move Malkin? Because of all the wingers currently on the depth chart, most are natural left wingers. Malkin has played RW before, and his style is best fit on the right side. Kunitz hasn't proved very durable or consistent in his time with the Penguins. He will have competition from veteran Max Talbot and rookie Eric Tangradi for his spot on the top line.

Eric Tangradi-Jordan Staal-Tyler Kennedy
Tangradi replaces Matt Cooke on what was widely considered the top 3rd line in the league. It is now time for Staal and Kennedy to graduate from a checking role to one of scoring. They have the talent to provide secondary scoring behing Crosby and Malkin, and Tangradi's power game and hands probably fit the 2nd line more than Cooke's does.

Matt Cooke-Max Talbot-Arron Asham
Love the addition of Asham to this roster. These 3 make up a promising energy line, and they are all more than capable of chipping in the occasional goal. Keeping in mind that this unit would be primarily deployed in a shutdown role, meaning their value to the team is in how many goals they keep off the score board rather than putting them on there. All 3 are swift skaters, and none pass on a hit when it's available.

Mike Rupp-Craig Adams-Eric Godard/Dustin Jeffery
Rupp is 6-5, Adams shouldve been a candidate for the best defensive forward, and Godard is the designated enforcer who may be relegated to luxury with the addition of Asham. Asham is no heavy weight, but other than the Rangers and Flyers, enforcers seem to be
less and less necessary in the Atlantic Division. That means Jeffrey will probably at least split time with Godard and provide an offensive touch to the 4th line.

Defense
Paul Martin - Brooks Orpik
Martin is not an offensive dynamo like Gonchar was, but he isn't exactly challenged offensively. He is a huge upgrade over Gonchar defensively, however. Orpik is a punisher, and the addition of Michalek takes some of the physical and defensive load off his shoulders.

Zybynek Michalek-Alex Goligoski
Michalek will block any shot in his reach, and is capable offensively. Gologoski has the tools to replace some of Gonchar's offensive production. Letang is a candidate here, but Gogo's game seems to fit with the shutdown style of Michalek better.

Kris Letang-Ben Lovejoy
These 2 are more offensively inclined, and neither has an imposing, crease-clearing frame. But both are capable of eating up minutes, playing within the system, and starting the rush with a reliable outlet pass. Letang can surprise with well timed hits when opposibg forwards aren't expecting it, as well.

Goalies
Marc-Andre Fleury
Brent Johnson
Shero stays with what he had last year here. Fleury was hung out to dry by his defenseman too many times last season. The additions of Asham, Martin and Michalek will make sure that doesn't happen as often this year, and should lead to better play from the goalies.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Random Mid-Week Thoughts

This has been one of the most intriguing off-seasons I can remember. When was the last time you remember the top UFA lasting over a month into the signing period and still not knowing where he'll play the coming season? So, with nothing other than my memory at my disposal, here's what has stood out so far to me...

It is going to be very odd to see Mike Modano in a red uniform and a different number than 9. Modano is a sure fire Hall of Famer, and is still able to play a key role on a contending team. Granted, he no longer should be deployed as a top 6 guy, but he may be one of the top five #3 centers in the league, and will definitely be an asset to the Red Wings power play units. This signing definitely keeps the Wings in contention to win another Presidents Trophy when you consider the talent and leadership already on hand in Detroit...

Antero Niittymaki could be the X factor that finally brings a cup to the Sharks. The Finnish goalie has proven he can get hot and play out of his mind in tournaments (2006 Olympic games), which is something former starter Evgeny Nabakov never was able to prove. They have one of the most dangerous lines in the NHL with Heatley-Thornton-Marleau locked up, and former captain Rob Blake's departure will be felt more for leadership than on ice production. I say that because the Sharks still have quality blueliners on their roster. 2010 should start with a familiar name on top of the contenders list... I expect the Sharks to again make it at least to the final four..

This should be the year all of the young talent in St. Louis finally matures into a contender. David Perron, David Backes, Brad Boyes and T.J. Oshie form a young core of top 6 forwards who, if they play to their potential, should be able to keep pace with anyone. Backes and Boyes had off years last season, but should be able to bounce back. Adding playoff hero Jaroslav Halak stabilizes the back end while Franchise player Erik Johnson should continue his ascent to superstar status. This team really intrigues me. No one knows what to expect of the champion Blackhwaks after they shuffled their roster to get under the cap, age is a risk to many of the top players in Detroit. And Nashville lacks established star power (although they still find away to earn a playoff spot every year). The Central Division is up for grabs, and could end up providing the one darkhorse, out of nowhere division winner in the west come May...

Monday, August 2, 2010

Hawks GM Bowman Proving Lucky

Let's see... You can't afford your Staney Cup winning goalie after he is awarded $2.75 in arbitration, and low and behold, there's a proven all star available for half that amount. It seems that every step Chicago GM Stan Bowman takes to navigate his team under the salary cap is turning up roses these days.

It all started when he traded playoff stud Dustin Byfuglien to the Atlanta Thrashers. Included with Big Buff was winger Andrew Ladd and blueliner Brent Sopel. All 3 were earning more than the roles they were playing for Blackhawks called for. Bowman will now give Tomas Kopecky a shot on the top 2 lines, and the opening paves the way for big Troy Brouwer to fill Byfugliens role as enforcer and park in the crease guy in the power play. Luckily, the 'Hawks had depth in their organization to fill the forwards lost in this deal.

As for Sopel, the Thrashers sent promising offensive blueline prospect Ivan Vishnevskiy to Chi-town to restock the back end. The talented Russian was a first round pick who has spent time in the CHL adapting to the North American game.

To further lighten the compression felt against the salary cap, Bowman then dealt winger Kris Versteeg to Toronto, and got back Viktor Stalberg in return. Stalberg is a couple $ million cheaper than Versteeg, as well as less proven. However, he plays with the same speed and comes in a much taller frame. He may not have the production of Versteeg, but has the chance to do so if he plays with Marian Hossa or Jonathan Toews or Patrick Kane on the top 2 lines.

NHL history is filled with goalies who excelled for a year in the post season, but have never been able to sustain that success. Jim Carey, Johan Hedberg, Sean Burke and more have shined on the big stage and failed to sustain a top-caliber career in the NHL. I'm not saying Antti Niemi will follow suit, but only time will tell if he's a flash in the pan or not. Today, after walking away from Niemi's arbitration award, the Blackhawks have added what has to be seen as an upgrade between the pipes by adding 35 year old Marty Turco for roughly half of what Niemi would've cost them. Turco has a cup ring, multiple All-Star game selections, and has been consistent his whole career.

Looks like Stan Bowman has fell into a bed of roses again this off season.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

No Sympathy For Blackhawks

I'm getting a little tired of hearing (and reading) fans and writers complain/whine about how the salary cap has made it impossible for GM Stan Bowman to keep his Stanley Cup winning Blackhawks together for a run at defending their title. This isn't the fault of a salary cap system. Let's be honest here... The reason Chicago has had to jettison salaries is because of the ridiculous contracts handed out by prior GM Dale Tallon.

Now, don't get me wrong. The purpose of this blog isn't to paint Tallon as the bad guy or a clueless GM. Let's get one thing clear. Tallon's job was to build a team to win the cup, and he did that. The moves he made to sign Brian Campbell, Cristobal Huet and Marian Hossa gave the 'Hawks the depth needed to outlast their competition in the Stanley Cup tournament, and they did that.

However, when it comes to building a sustainable winner, that's where Tallon's actions have left some questions. when you have a young core of defenseman in Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook to build around, why sign Campbell to a high dollar, long term deal? Or for that matter, why give a long term high value contract to Huet, who at the time hadn't experienced a sustained run of success at either the regular season or post-season level in the NHL?

These moves alone, while providing a roster that did win a Cup, make it highly unlikely to leave sufficient cap room for when the entry-level deals for cornerstones Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and the other talented youngsters expire. But when you add to them the offersheet fiasco of missing the deadline to offer deals to his RFA's last season, this is strike 2 against Tallon. Let me break this down a little further...

When the cap is set at $59 million, and you have Campbell ($7 million), Huet ($5 million) and Kris Versteeg ($3 million) eating up $15 million of that room while none of them play on your top line, defense pairing, or win the goalie job outright, you've signed some bad deals. None of these players have ever proven themselves as "core" players like Keith, Kane, Toews or Seabrook have.

Tallon did an awesome job of drafting. This Blackhawks team has to still be considered a contender because of the depth that exists in the organization. Players like Jack Skille, Kyle Beach, Bryan Bickell and Troy Brouwer will get their chance to prove their talents as they fill the holes left by Bowman trading role players Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, Kris Versteeg and Brent Sopel.

Just don't blame the salary cap for those trades. A #3 defenseman, backup goalie and 3rd line winger should cost you much less than $15 million, and that's a personnel fault of Tallon, not a flaw of the CBA.

This CBA is working. The idea is to give cost-certainty to every one of the 30 teams and provide a spending limit to ensure all 30 teams have a level playing field. As evidenced by the rejection of the Ilya Kovalchuk contract, the league is taking steps to ensure the contracts are fair in the spirit of the labor agreement.

Dale Tallon built a championship team, and he deserves credit for that. But the way he built it was to win one cup. It's not fair or realistic to look beyond that and blame the salary cap for the dismantling of this team.